Sub-notebooks or ultra-mobile PCs are set to take over as the product of choice for many businesses and home users over the next 18 months.
The UMPC, sub-notebook – or ,mini’ notebook as Gartner calls them – have been around for some time now but never really caught on. The reasons given, in the past at least, were that the screen and keyboard were both physically too small to make them practical. However, those arguments seem to have suddenly dissolved. Smaller form factor notebook PCs have started to sell in much larger numbers and a whole swathe of product launches over the next few months will ensure that they remain high profile.
According to Gartner, global sales of ‘mini’ notebooks will reach 5.2 million units in 2008 and will swell to eight million next year. It expects growth to accelerate even more over the next few years and by 2012, we could see 50 million mini notebooks shipped in the course of a calendar year.
Gartner defines mini-notebooks as having a screen size of between 5 inches to 10 inches and being capable of running a full version of Windows or Linux. It specifically excludes products that have smaller screens. Demand for these smaller devices will be driven by several factors, the analyst firm says, but the key factor in making them suddenly desirable seems to be the fact that most will provide very basic functionality – but enough for most users – at a very affordable price.
Variety Of Users
‘Mini-notebooks are likely to attract a variety of users’, says Annette Jump, research director at Gartner. ‘Potential users are likely to include both first-time buyers seeking a low-cost introductory PC as well as experienced users seeking a low cost second or third PC, for themselves or a relative.’
While the home user may lead the way and probably account for around 70 per cent of the mini notebook market, the public sector – education in particular – and some business buyers will also start to adopt mini notebooks. Gartner does not however expect much erosion of ‘standard’ notebook sales, as there will still be a distinct functionality gap. In effect, the mini notebook will bring many new users into the market, who may then later graduate more readily onto notebooks that offer more functionality.
When you consider the positive response to the ASUS eee pc, this scenario hardly seems surprising. What perhaps has not been considered here though is whether in fact many users will be happy to accept the very small screen and keyboard or whether, once again, this will prove to be a limiting factor. Gartner is perhaps assuming that most users will be younger consumers who will use the device largely for social purposes – to go on line anywhere and hook up to Facebook or Bebo for example, or to download TV, video and music.
Bigger Displays
This may well be the case, but while these buyers may like the extra portability of the smaller system, they may soon want a bigger or better display and perhaps a more comfortable input device. While roll-up screens and better voice recognition are coming down the line, they won’t be mass market technologies for some time and would inflate the price of mini notebooks anyway. The initial move towards mini notebooks, many of which will almost certainly be given away with mobile phone contracts and other deals, may trigger more people into buying fuller-sized models.
Another possible impact will be an accelerated move towards hosted applications and storage (Cloud Computing). These devices will be pretty basic but one thing they will do is enable users to hook up to 3G networks and WiFi hotspots, so that they con use social networking anywhere. What they won’t have is masses of costly storage, perhaps not even much of a Flash drive. Users are much more likely to use hosted services and once they get used to the idea, they may soon start to demand the some flexibility when they are working.
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